A pair formation model with vaccination and varying risk for mpox

Abstract

Mpox is a disease related to smallpox and cowpox which is endemic in central and west Africa and has been spreading globally since a novel outbreak began in May of 2022. This outbreak is mainly concentrated in men who have sex with men and is transmitted through close prolonged contact. We consider distinct high risk and low risk groups which can interact with one another and extend a pair formation model with recovery designed for mpox in order to incorporate these different risk levels, as well as the possibility of vaccination. We show that most infections in an outbreak are within the high risk group and the maximum infected individuals can be best minimized by focusing on vaccinating the high risk group.