Analyzing the spatial and temporal trends of blacklegged ticks in New Brunswick

Abstract

The blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) is undergoing range expansion in the Central and Eastern parts of Canada. The blacklegged tick is also the primary vector of Lyme Disease, the most common vector borne disease in North America. Climate is believed to have co‐driven this expansion as temperature has been found to be a strong predictor of tick occurrence. Previous research within the literature has shown that that the known geographic range of the I. scapularis is less than what its habitat requirements allow, especially temperature, and thus it is thought that it will expand its geographic range. This study used data from the Lloyd Tick Lab, a passive surveillance program, over an eight‐year period to assess if any spatial or temporal trends of the tick in New Brunswick, Canada could be identified. Comparison was completed to assess the closeness to predictions found in the literature. Results indicated the development of two areas of high tick recoveries per capita, upriver of the Saint John River as well as a spread laterally (southwest to northeast) between the counties of Saint John and Westmoreland. These results closely followed recent predictions in the literature and yield important information as to the spread of the blacklegged tick in New Brunswick. This study indicates that model predictions for the near future (2020’s) are supported by the most recent tick recovery trends and provide important confirmation of the trajectory of species range expansion. This knowledge is essential and should be used to inform future monitoring, public health risk communication and policy making.